Youth vote key to PQ victory: CJAD study
The Parti Québécois will need to get young people to the polls in order to secure a majority government.
That is the suggestion from researchers who commissioned an election poll on behalf of CJAD 800, The Gazette, the Quebec Community Groups Network and the Association for Canadian Studies.
The poll found that 38% of respondents 18-24 years of age supported the PQ; 33% in the 25-34 demographic.
"A potential minority or majority victory for the PQ depends considerably on the level of voter participation of the youngest cohort of Quebecers," said Jack Jedwab, executive director of the Association for Canadian Studies." It is a reality that too few observers take into consideration when doing seat projections on the basis of the percentages each political party obtain in surveys of public opinion."
Jedwab points out that young people vote less, making it critical for the PQ to get them to the polls.
"If young francophones do not break with historically lower rates of voter participation inQuebecelections we may be looking at a much closer three-way contest than anticipated by observers projecting a minority or majority PQ victory."
The results also show that 40% of seniors 65 and over intend to vote Liberal; 30% for the Coalition Avenir Québec and 28% for the PQ.
The CAQ has somewhat of an appeal across all demographic groups; they are supported by between 23% and 30% of respondents, depending on the age group.
Support for Québéc Solidaire is highest among those aged 25-34, with 13% support; Option Nationale is most liked by the 18-24 set at 9%.
Here are the full results:
65+: PLQ 40%, CAQ 30%, PQ 28%, QS 1%, PVQ 1%, ON 1%.
55-64: PLQ 33%, PQ 31%, CAQ 27%, QS 5%, PVQ 2%, ON 2%.
45-54: PQ 36%, PLQ 32%, CAQ 25%, QS 3%, PVQ 1%, ON 1%.
35-44: PLQ 35%, PQ 27%, CAQ 27%, QS 6%, PVQ 2%, ON 2%.
25-34: PQ 33%, CAQ 25%, PLQ 22%, QS 13%, PVQ 4%, ON 2%.
18-24: PQ 38%, CAQ 23%, PLQ 14%, QS 8%, ON 9%, PVQ 7%.