Liberals widen lead in new poll; CAQ, QS rise at PQ's expense

With just five days left to go before the April 7 election, a new Ipsos-Reid poll suggests the Liberals are extending their lead over the PQ, while the CAQ and Québec Solidaire have made significant gains.

The poll shows support for the Quebec Liberals is at 37 per cent — unchanged from an Ipsos-Reid poll done two weeks ago.

The PQ continue to fall — they're at 28 per cent support, down 4 points.

The CAQ and Québec Solidaire are both on the rise, picking up 3 points to 19 and 13 per cent, respectively.

Liberals and PQ equal among francophones

Among francophones, the Liberals have pulled into a tie with the PQ (31 per cent), ahead of the CAQ (21 per cent), and QS (14 per cent).

And on the island of Montreal, the rise of QS has been most striking — the left-wing party has the support of 19 per cent on the island, just four points behind the PQ (23 per cent). The Liberals continue to dominate on the island, with 45 per cent support, while the CAQ have 9 per cent.

In Montreal's off-island suburbs, the CAQ now appears to be trying to make it a three-way race: the PQ lead at 32 per cent, the Liberals are now at 28 per cent, while the CAQ have improved to 22 per cent.

Liberals tops among committed voters

Ipsos-Reid notes that among the 72 per cent of Quebecers who says that "nothing short of an unforeseen emergency could stop me from getting to the voting booth and casting my vote", Liberal support rises to 40 per cent, the PQ are at 28, the CAQ at 18, and QS at 12.

The pollster also says the Liberal vote is the most solid — 81 per cent of Liberal voters are committed to voting Liberal no matter what, compared with 78 per cent of PQ supporters, 57 per cent of CAQ supporters, and 57 per cent of QS supporters.

Ipsos-Reid also suggests the CAQ is now the most popular second-choice party, and would thus have the most room to grow: the CAQ is the second choice of 33 per cent, QS at 21, the PQ with 11, and the Liberals with 10.

More than half of Liberals listed the CAQ as their second choice, while 43 per cent of Péquistes list QS and 31 per cent could move to the CAQ.

CAQ supporters would move to the Liberals (36 per cent) ahead of the PQ (26 per cent).

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  1. Joel posted on 04/03/2014 09:01 AM
    My fear is that what the PQ and the CAQ will learn from this election is that they will have to form one party to win a majority in the next election. Much like the Conservatives did in Federal politics once they took a beating.
  2. Joe posted on 04/03/2014 09:32 AM
    I just put a couple of slices of the new PQ brand bread in the toaster. Breakfast is ready - they're toast!
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